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Durability matters. It is Keyworddisappointing that nobody will get to enjoy the magnificence of Charlotte Hornets PG LaMelo Ball and Los Angeles Lakers PG/SF/PF LeBron James on the court this week or perhaps the rest of the 2022-23 weeks -- and we can debate whether they belong in the same sentence when it comes to their own levels of durability -- but they are badly injured. Sad emoji.
We talk about great players and their collective road to physical recovery seemingly all the time, but today let us focus on the minutes leaders because there are great stories there, too.
For example, nobody has played more minutes this season than Minnesota Timberwolves SG/SF Anthony Edwards. The No. 1 pick in the 2020 draft was a good player in his first two NBA seasons but now, in Year 3, averaging more than 36 MPG, he is a fantasticplayer, at least statistically, top 10 on the ESPN Player Rater and in points formats.
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Perhaps Edwards would have matured naturally without the extra minutes, and even with a full complement of All-Star teammates (Karl-Anthony Towns has missed myriad games, for example), but here we are. Minutes matter, and he is handling them well.
New York Knicks PF Julius Randle is second in total minutes and providing monstrous numbers reminiscent of his surprising 2020-21 season, when he averaged 24.1 PPG in a whopping 37.6 MPG. Randle not only handles consistent big minutes, but he is on his way to 70-plus games for the seventh time in eight seasons, missing out in 2019-20 only because the Knicks did not play 70 games, thanks to the onset of the pandemic.
We do not appreciate players such as Randle enough. James, who is awesome, has played in 60 games in merely one of the past five seasons. Still, everyone drafts him earlier.
If we are talking about durability, we must talk about Brooklyn Nets SG/SF Mikal Bridges. This fellow has not missed an eligible game since high school! Bridges does not have the same numbers are Randle, who he met up with on Wednesday night, but we undervalue them both.
When Bridges was traded from the Phoenix Suns to the Nets and was forced to miss a game, he was angry, since he carried the league's longest consecutive game streak. The league later ruled the streak would continue, since he was not eligible to play. In fact, Bridges, averaging a career-best 17.9 PPG, may end up playing in 83 games this season, even though each team plays only 82. Players can't help fantasy managers if they do not play!
Nobody is saying we should cease discussing Ball, James, new Suns SF/PF Kevin Durant, New Orleans Pelicans PF Zion Williamson or any of the other myriad injured stars around the sport, but it is almost as if fantasy managers take for granted the players out there for every game, big minutes, without fail.
This matters a bit more in points leagues, where sheer volume dictates over categorical aid, but still, it is a big deal. Edwards and Randle may end up top-5 options in points formats and it is due to volume. You will not find LA Clippers star Kawhi Leonard in the top 5 in points formats.
I spend more energy looking at minutes because it is important to note the players the coaches trust the most. In addition, points-per-minute is a category in one of my leagues. When Portland Trail Blazers PG Damian Lillard scores nearly two points per minute in a recent, historic game, I love it.
When his former teammate Josh Hart cannot score double-digits most nights in 30-plus minutes, it is a problem. Some players, mainly younger, can handle the bigger minutes, such as Bridges. He will get the minutes next season as well, and perhaps fantasy managers invest in the first five rounds. Perhaps not, as they overlook seemingly average production.
Which side do you think I will be on?
Regardless, coaches tell a story from which players earn their most minutes, and looking at the leaderboards, I have several thoughts.
--Toronto Raptors coach Nick Nurse really relies on his starters, and that is a positive for fantasy. In fact, while PF/C Pascal Siakam leads the league with 37.5 MPG, four Raptors are among the top 23 in MPG, each getting more than 35. Coincidentally, four Raptors finished last season among the top 23 in total minutes. Some think PG/SG Fred VanVleet and SF/PF Scottie Barnes would be more productive with fewer minutes, but there is no indication that is going to happen this season or next. That only makes me covet VanVleet, Barnes, SF OG Anunoby, SG Gary Trent and Siakam more.
--Each member of the big Chicago Bulls Trio of C Nikola Vucevic, SG/SF DeMar DeRozan and SG/SF Zach LaVine may end up among the top 10 in minutes played this season, extraordinary since the first two of those fellows are older than 30. Some of this is out of necessity, as Bulls coach Billy Donovan lacks options, but it is also clear these players can handle it. DeRozan finished third in the NBA in minutes last season. Vucevic may end up a top 10 option on the Rater and in points formats, and he sure was not drafted that way. I will covet him in all leagues this fall, too.
--Cleveland Cavaliers PF/C Evan Mobley is third on the team in MPG, but easily leads in total minutes, where he is top 5 in the league. This is the next Bridges type in terms of durability, and the numbers are strong, too. Mobley seems likely to emerge as an even better fantasy option next season.
--Philadelphia 76ers coach Doc Rivers has 33-year-old PG/SG James Harden handling 36.7 MPG (fifth in the league), in line with his career norm, but also a sign that the team lacks a clear backup option to distribute passes. In addition, the 76ers are all-in for this year, and Harden may be elsewhere by the summer, so these minutes and potential toll next season may not be Philadelphia's problem. We like that Harden can handle the minutes. Do we like C Joel Embiid handling a career-high 35.1 MPG? Does this bode well for him remaining healthy all through March and into the playoffs. Not sure about that one.
--Certain players saw a big uptick in minutes early on this season, and it was a sign that fantasy managers should have been more aggressive in pursuit of them on draft day. Boston Celtics stars Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown are great examples of this. Same with the Timberwolves' Edwards. Utah Jazz SF/PF Lauri Markkanen, his teammate SG Jordan Clarkson, Blazers PG/SG Anfernee Simons and Miami Heat PG/SG Tyler Herro are other examples. Perhaps some of this was clear checking team lineups in October. I will be more diligent checking team depth charts for sure.
--Then there are the players that are not seeing the minutes their production appears to deserve. Dallas Mavericks PF/C Christian Wood averages 17.5 PPG in only 27.3 MPG. Perhaps coach Jason Kidd is afraid Wood would break if he played more minutes. Wood averaged only 19 MPG in February, which seems outrageous. Timberwolves backup C Naz Reid is so productive in his measly 18.1 MPG. Pay attention if he gets more opportunity elsewhere. I expected more minutes for Memphis Grizzlies PF/C Brandon Clarke, Indiana Pacers PF/C Jalen Smith and Raptors PF/C Chris Boucher, but they didn't get them. Perhaps next season!
--So, which players seem poised for bigger minutes next season? In general, we are looking at younger players on lesser teams. The Houston Rockets are one obvious place to look, as PF/C Jabari Smith, only 19, averaged 33 MPG in February. He remains a future star. San Antonio Spurs SG Malaki Branham played 31.6 MPG in February, as his role changed. The Spurs could do just about anything this offseason. Pacers SG/SF Bennedict Mathurin is already scoring 17.1 PPG in 28.2 MPG as a reserve. Watch him score 20 PPG regularly perhaps as soon as this fall.
